ProForest DSS: A probabilistic decision support system for adaptive forest management under climate change
Project Details
- Project run time: Jan 26 to Dec 29, 2026
- Aim: Develop a user-friendly, spatially explicit, and probabilistic Decision Support System (DSS)
- Budget: CHF 400'000
Background
Climate change is reshaping forests across Central Europe. Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, recurring storms, and large-scale disturbances such as bark beetle outbreaks are putting increasing pressure on forest ecosystems. These changes not only endanger biodiversity but also undermine the ecosystem services forests provide, including carbon storage, water regulation, timber production, and recreation. As a result, adaptive forest management has become essential. Forest managers must actively respond to shifting climate patterns and emerging risks while meeting societal expectations. In this context, decision support systems play a crucial role by integrating ecological, economic, and social considerations to guide informed decision-making.
About ProForest DSS
In ProForest DSS, ETH Zurich, ZHAW and wetransform join forces to develop a user-friendly decision-support system (DSS). This DSS will help forest practitioners to make informed and sustainable management choices under future climate conditions. The DSS integrates the dynamic forest model ForClim with a spatially enhanced and probabilistic MCDA framework based on the ProMCDA package, allowing users to evaluate and rank diverse management alternatives.
It incorporates user-defined preferences, assesses short- and long-term impacts under different climate scenarios, and analyzes key indicators for forest ecosystem services and biodiversity. In doing so, it helps practitioners identify management strategies that fit specific local conditions as well as broader planning units. The team builds the DSS on Swiss forest data and develops it in close collaboration with forest practitioners, ensuring its practical relevance and applicability to real-world forest management challenges.
The ProForest DSS project pursues the following specific aims:
- Enhancement of the ForClim Model by, among others, incorporating a probabilistic bark beetle outbreak module
- Development of a spatially explicit multi-criteria decision-making tool
- Development and implementation of a practical and user-friendly web-based DSS integration ForClim simulations and the enhanced ProMCDA tool
- Testing of the developed DSS using empirical data from long-term forest monitoring plots and by involving practitioners to ensure the practicality and effectiveness of the DSS in real-world forest management scenarios.
- Intensive knowledge transfer to promote the adoption and uptake of the developed DSS and its underlying development.
Project Team
ProForest DSS relies on an interdisciplinary project team that combines expertise from science and research with private-sector interests.
ETH Zürich: Mathieu Lévesque (PI) will oversee the overall project, leveraging his deep understanding of forest management and silvicultural systems, along with his strong network of forest managers across Switzerland. Ulrike Hiltner (Co-PI) will lead the forest modeling efforts, including the enhancement of ForClim and data acquisition.
ZHAW: Matteo Spada will co-lead the enhancement and spatial integration of the ProMCDA package, ensuring its compatibility with the DSS.
wetransform GmbH: Thorsten Reitz, will collaborate on the ProMCDA advancements and take a lead role in the design and implementation of the DSS.
Project Funding
This project is generously funded by Velux Stiftung, whose support is gratefully acknowledged. We sincerely appreciate the Foundation’s commitment to advancing high-quality research and enabling impactful scientific work.